This month, GOP operatives and others close to Donald Trump have grown increasingly nervous over trends they’ve seen in recent private polling data produced by different Republican organizations and conservative allies.
It’s not just the swing-state polling or the national surveys that are causing distress lately. The anxiety-spiking numbers are coming out of Trump strongholds like Ohio and Florida, according to three GOP sources, including two people close to the former president, who have reviewed the private polls.
“They’re looking worse than they should,” one Republican operative who has seen the internal data tells Rolling Stone. “Donald Trump is not losing Florida or Ohio, but that isn’t what’s concerning … It’s a trend of softening support.”
The polling results are a mirror image of what spooked Democratic operatives — prior to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 contest — when both public and private polling data showed Biden shedding support in safe terrain like Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia, and even New York. The question was never, for instance, if the president would win New York; his soft support in liberal bastions foretold doom in critical battleground states.
But within the past month, after Biden ceded the ticket to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Harris-Walz campaign has significantly cut into (or in some cases reversed) Trump’s leads, infuriating the former president with less than three months until Election Day.
Several of those signs, much to the consternation of some of the national Republican Party elite, are now popping up in Trump country.
The three sources would not allow Rolling Stone to print any of the referenced data pertaining to these solidly red states, or to publicly identify which conservative groups or GOP organs had run the recent surveys.
There is a sense among various Republican consultants that the poll numbers would not be helpful to party morale or — more optimistically speaking — merely present a snapshot of a Harris 2024 “honeymoon.” Indeed, two of the sources say they personally have not briefed the data or their concerns to Trump yet, fearing it would only upset him.
For certain veteran party pollsters, the ex-president’s ongoing 2024-related woes aren’t at all surprising.
“When you address things that voters don’t care about [such as obsessing over Harris’ crowd sizes], they punish you — and Trump’s being punished right now for not staying on message and not addressing issues people care about,” says Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster and conservative Trump critic. “This election was his to lose, and he’s losing it … And he’s incapable of changing.”
Luntz adds that, based on his own data, he sees that most voters across the nation actually rate Trump, on policy issues they care about most, “as better able to solve them than [Harris] — but they just don’t like him. And that’s playing a bigger and bigger role in her surge and his falling back. She’s even expanding the voter pool, specifically among younger women who didn’t want to support Biden or Trump, and that changes the makeup of the electorate.”
Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that “two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by Republican pollsters — which Mr. Trump carried in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote — showed him receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Ms. Harris in the state.” (Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s extremely MAGAfied vice presidential pick, is from Ohio.)
And in the realm of public and nonpartisan polling, the red-state warning signs for Trump and his party are blaring.
“I was surprised that Harris is within striking distance, being only five points down,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, regarding a USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll of likely Florida voters released this week.
There is a long, two-and-a-half-month stretch between now and Election Day, and the presidential race between Harris and Trump remains effectively in toss-up territory. Nobody who works on or close to the Harris or Trump campaigns whom Rolling Stone has spoken to say it is even remotely likely that Trump loses to Harris in Florida or Ohio this November.
Still, at this late stage in the campaign, Team Harris is reveling in recent polling news and a palpable uptick in Democratic voter enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Team Trump is suddenly playing defense, a position they largely were not expecting to be in at this point in the election cycle.
“We are going to go to bed early on Nov. 5, as Donald J. Trump will be announced as our 47th president. Early,” Republican National Committee co-chair and Trump family member Lara Trump said a month ago, at a late-night afterparty during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. “I’m calling it at 10 o’clock at night. How does that sound to everybody?”
Among much of the Republican Party’s national apparatuses, more and more operatives are growing less cocky by the day. Several of Trump’s own lieutenants and advisers are also leaning away from premature football-spiking.
“It’s going to be a close race,” John McLaughlin, one of Trump’s top pollsters, tells Rolling Stone. “We haven’t even hit Labor Day, and Trump and Harris haven’t even debated, so there’s a long way to go. We’re up against a tougher team with Harris compared to Biden, and we’ve got to run on the record and the policies that created that lead over Biden. We have to make that case. With 75 percent of all voters telling us the country is on the wrong track in our latest survey … we have a lot of advantages to win this race.
“The fun is just beginning,” he says.
Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing the "Big Beautiful Bill Act," on July 4, 2025.
100 Unhinged Things Trump Did That You May Have Forgotten
“Flood the zone with shit.”
That’s how Steve Bannon once described Donald Trump‘s attention-overload strategy. It’s designed to overwhelm your senses, so the latest outrage erases your ability to remember the avalanche of outrages past. The “shit” part matters as well — because the goal is to make politics seem so dirty and indecent that no sane person would ever get involved in the political arena. This cedes the civic ground to hyper-partisan sociopaths.
That’s exactly why combating the memory hole is essential as voters head to the polls. The 2026 midterm elections are the only structural opportunity to put guardrails on this runaway train of a president who seems hell bent on destroying our democratic norms, dividing the American people, and alienating our allies while emboldening our enemies. The result is a tsunami of sleaze: unprecedented corruption, rising costs, and governmental chaos.
But the voters who most need to remember are the ones most likely to forget.
Independents are the largest block of American voters, and they decide who wins elections. They’re fed up with both parties and tend to be fiscally responsible, socially tolerant-to-libertarian, and strong on national security. This election, their number-one issue is affordability. They voted for Trump in 2024 but now his approval rating among independents is a pathetic, record-low 22 percent.
Here’s the catch: independents are also the voters least likely to pay attention to politics on a regular basis. That’s why they are so susceptible to the trap set by the Trump team: sliding from healthy skepticism into the corrosive cynicism that says all parties and politicians are equally corrupt. While no party has a monopoly on virtue or vice, Donald Trump’s reign is in a heated feces class by itself.
Below is a reminder of Trump’s second term low-lights. You’ve probably forgotten most of these amid the doomscroll of our daily lives. But the damage doesn’t disappear because our attention drifts. Share it with your independent friends and neighbors who may have quietly voted for Trump in 2024. It’s a timely reminder that Trump’s billionaire cabinet and his democracy-deforming presidency is an insult to their wallet, their health, their government, their safety, and their values.
Your Wallet
Trump promised that “when I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One.” He promised gas below $2 a gallon. But, of course, prices did not come down. Instead, Trump now calls the affordability crisis a “hoax.”
Gas now averages $4.28 a gallon, up 38 percent since his inauguration, and diesel is $6.28, up 69 percent. The main cause is the $47 billion war with Iran he launched without offering the American people a reason or an exit strategy, let alone getting congressional approval. So much for no new wars.
Trump’s tariff obsession is costing American households more than $1,000 a year. And Trump has inexplicably aimed some of his harshest tariffs at America’s closest democratic allies and trading partners, including the European Union and Canada.
Health care costs are also spiking because of Trump’s actions. After the longest government shutdown in American history, enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits were allowed to expire in the Trump-Republican budget. As a result, in 2027, premium payments are expected to more than double, from $888 to $1,904 a year, and as many as 5 million people may drop coverage. The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump’s budget will add roughly 10 million Americans to the uninsured over a decade.
Food aid for kids wasn’t spared in the GOP budget either. ProPublica found that more than 770,000 children in 12 states lost SNAP benefits.
But surely all these cuts will help get America’s debt and deficit under control, right? Wrong.
Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” adds an estimated $3.4 trillion to deficits. For all the chaos unleashed by the DOGE cuts that threw career civil servants and programs into the “wood chipper,” less than $1.5 billion in savings have been verified and government spending actually increased. This year’s $2 trillion deficit is the highest ever outside a war or recession. The U.S. national debt just hit a record $40 trillion. Moody’s downgraded America’s credit rating from its top AAA grade. As Trump assaults the independence of the Federal Reserve, America is careening toward a fiscal cliff.
All this has happened while the Trump administration has taken ownership stakes in some 30 private companies, from 10 percent of Intel to 15 percent of rare-earth miner MP Materials, a “golden share” in U.S. Steel, and a stake in a magnet maker backed by Don Jr.’s venture capital firm. Conservatives used to call that socialism or crony capitalism. Now it’s business as usual in the GOP.
Your Health
In 2024, many independent voters were swayed by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump as part of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.
But once in office, the Trump administration that promised to take on pesticides actually sided with the company that makes Roundup at the Supreme Court against cancer lawsuits and won. Yep, that happened.
On Day One, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords, while banning any mention of climate change from U.S. government websites — because ignoring a problem always makes it better.
That’s not all: the Trump’s administration rolled back limits on “forever chemicals” in drinking water and on mercury and arsenic from power plants. It also eliminated the Environmental Protection Agency’s research office. You can’t make America healthy while making our water and air dirtier.
During his confirmation hearings, Kennedy promised the Senate that he was not an anti-vaxxer, despite boatloads of evidence to the contrary. But he turned around and fired the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel and replaced it with hand-picked successors. Then he fired the new CDC director after just 29 days. She testified that she was ousted for refusing to preapprove the new panel’s vaccine recommendations without reviewing the evidence.
Kennedy’s founding MAHA report seemed to have been written with AI, and cited studies that do not exist. He then canceled nearly $500 million in mRNA vaccine research. Meanwhile, measles has come roaring back under his watch. Once considered an eradicated disease, the U.S. has recorded more than 4,400 confirmed cases so far this year, nearly double last year’s total — with 96 percent of this year’s cases among people who were unvaccinated.
Your Government
In his last inaugural address, Trump pledged to restore competence to the federal government.
That’s the punchline. The Trump administration has consistently chosen loyalty over expertise. In addition to an anti-vaxxer with no medical experience running the health department, we’ve got a self-styled Secretary of War who was a Fox News weekend host with no experience running a large organization who is now in charge of the world’s largest military. FBI Director Kash Patel is a conspiracy theorist who one senator credibly called the “least qualified and most partisan FBI director in our nation’s history.”
Personnel is policy and the pattern runs all the way down the ranks. At Homeland Security, the job of safeguarding elections went to Heather Honey, an activist whose faulty voter-data claims Trump cited in trying to overturn the 2020 results. The DHS terrorism-prevention hub went to Thomas Fugate, a 22-year-old Heritage Foundation intern a year out of college with no national security experience. FEMA put disaster response in the hands of Gregg Phillips, an election denier who claimed he had been teleported to a Waffle House 50 miles away. He was removed from the post only after months of embarrassing headlines. The White House hired “Stop the Steal” lawyer Kurt Olsen to reinvestigate the 2020 election, then ordered the nation’s spy agencies to share intelligence with him. Trump nominated Paul Ingrassia to run the office that protects federal whistleblowers until texts surfaced in which he admitted to “a Nazi streak.” When Republican senators sank the nomination, Trump simply moved him to the General Services Administration, where he is now acting general counsel overseeing more than 100 government lawyers. These are not “the very best people.”
The problem isn’t just incompetence, it’s corruption. On her first day in office, former Attorney General Pam Bondi disbanded the task force pursuing Russian oligarchs and told prosecutors to deprioritize foreign bribery cases. Five days later, Trump froze enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. By spring, the department slashed its Public Integrity Section, the unit created after Watergate to prosecute corrupt officials, and scrapped its crypto enforcement team.
This has unleashed a wave of corruption and presidential self-enrichment without precedent in U.S. history. His net worth has increased by billions this term, compounded by frenetic stock trading. The Trump family made at least $2.3 billion from crypto ventures while investors lost a combined $2.3 billion, in an industry his administration regulates. He pardoned the founder of Binance after a UAE fund used the family’s stablecoin to buy a $2 billion stake in that company.
Trump even tried to shake down $230 million in taxpayer dollars from his own Justice Department. The White House asked the Pentagon for a record $620 million loan to a company Donald Trump Jr.’s venture firm had invested in three months earlier. Despite that windfall, a Putin-allied oligarch helped pay for Trump Jr.’s wedding celebrations. The administration accepted a luxury 747 from Qatar, with ownership slated to pass to Trump’s library. All this makes the case of Trump’s border czar, who was recorded in an FBI sting accepting $50,000 in cash in a takeout bag, seem like a sin of small ambition.
As I’ve written before in Rolling Stone, presidential pardons are being sold. A nursing-home owner whose collapsed chain left grieving families with tens of millions in unpaid judgments spent more than $1 million on lobbyists and then received a full pardon. This month, The New York Times reported that a billionaire banker’s family hired Trump’s former lawyer Alina Habba under a contract worth more than $50 million. Trump pardoned him weeks after she started. The dizzying full list includes pardons of corrupt partisan cronies and several violent drug dealers.
The one promise Trump kept was “I will be your retribution.” The January 6 pardons were just the start. A Pulitzer Prize-winning Reuters analysis documented at least 470 targets of retribution in Trump’s first 10 months alone.
Your Safety
In his inaugural address, Trump said his success would be measured by the wars America ends and, most importantly, the ones it never gets into. But the president who petulantly demands a Nobel Peace Prize has ordered military strikes on at least seven countries in his second term, including Venezuela, Yemen, and Iran. He even threatened to seize Greenland from our ally Denmark at a NATO conference.
At the same time, Pete Hegseth is purging the U.S. military leadership with a political agenda, boasting to troops that he had fired 10 percent of the military’s generals and admirals, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the top uniformed officers of the Army, Navy and Air Force. Five weeks into the war with Iran, he fired the Army’s chief of staff. Defenestrating decades of military expertise during a war does not make America safer.
While Trump bragged that he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine in a day, he has not only failed to deliver peace but seems intent on rewarding the aggressor. The United States shamefully voted with Russia and North Korea against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Then Trump and JD Vance berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, and days later the administration paused all military aid. Putin got a blood red-carpet welcome in Alaska, while Trump keeps on insisting that it is “time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
While Russia has been struggling on the battlefront, this month Trump threw Putin a lifeline by listing sanctions on the sale of diesel which The Economist described as “scandalous” and “shameful for America,” explaining: “Putin terrorises his own people, kills Ukrainian civilians, and is helping Iran fight America. Mr Trump’s repeated acts of indulgence towards him, supposedly in pursuit of peace, undermine deterrence, hastening further crimes.” Six Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell, joined six Democrats in calling it “a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our allies.” Trump responded by waiving every Russian provision of a new sanctions law named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, finding a way to betray an ally beyond the grave.
Trump’s team often sold his softness on Russia with a promise to be tough on China in return. But the long-promised toughness never arrived. He also announced that he would ignore the bipartisan law banning the CCP-controlled TikTok that the Supreme Court had unanimously upheld. Trump cut sanctions put in place to punish China for the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. and suspended Radio Free Asia, which for decades brought uncensored news to Chinese audiences. China has benefitted economically from Trump’s tariff wars with U.S. allies, and despite arguing that the AI race requires no guardrails on development as a way to block China’s advances, Trump let Nvidia and AMD sell advanced AI chips to China in exchange for a 15 percent cut of the revenue. The administration blocked Taiwan’s president from a New York stopover after Beijing objected and Trump called a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan “a very good negotiating chip.” And amid increasing cyber-attacks, especially from China, Trump has inexplicably cut America’s cyber-defenses when we need to be ramping them up.
At home, “law and order” has too often meant order without law. Trump sent National Guard troops into American cities, and the courts repeatedly blocked him. The government deported a Maryland man to a Salvadoran prison in violation of a court order, called it an “administrative error,” and then resisted a Supreme Court order to facilitate his return. In Minneapolis this January, federal agents shot and killed two U.S. citizens in 17 days: Renee Good, a mother of three, and Alex Pretti, an intensive-care nurse at the Minneapolis VA. When federal prosecutors in Minnesota began investigating the killings, Washington told them to stop and the Trump Justice Department cut off access to the evidence.
But perhaps the most dangerous violation of basic safety occurred on day one of this term, when Trump legitimized political violence by pardoning roughly 1,500 of his followers charged in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, including some convicted of assaulting police officers.
Your Values
Character is the single most important quality in a president. But Trump’s contempt for the truth, evidenced in his singular impulse to lie all the time, has translated into a sustained assault on the basic values of our democracy.
Every patriot ought to flinch when confronted with the photos of a wrecking ball being taken to the East Wing of the White House. Trump did the demolition without the independent reviews, congressional approval and public comment required for even minor changes to historic buildings in Washington. He does not believe that rules apply to him.
But that was just the start: His administration gutted the U.S. Institute of Peace, fired its board and seized its building, bolting Trump’s name onto the facade while the legal fight was still underway. Trump purged the Kennedy Center board and his lackeys voted to rename it the “Trump-Kennedy Center,” attaching his name to a living memorial to a slain president. Blocked by the courts, now he is threatening to tear the Kennedy Center down.
The narcissistic impulse extends to Trump putting his face on our money as well. One-dollar coins bearing his likeness are now in circulation, and the Treasury has prepared a $250 bill with his portrait. Nearly every country that isn’t a monarchy declines to put its sitting leader on its money. The U.S. is in the ugly company of a rogue’s gallery of regimes including Marcos, Assad, Idi Amin, Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi, and Mobutu.
Speaking of ugly company, let’s talk about Trump’s longtime friend, Jeffrey Epstein. Trump promised to release the Epstein files as a candidate. But as president, he spent months fighting it. His team even summoned a Republican congresswoman to the White House Situation Room to pressure her to drop her support for releasing the files. The Trump Justice Department then withheld or redacted some 200,000 pages, which a federal judge found likely violated the law. Once Trump had the power to deliver the truth to the victims of a convicted child sex trafficker he used to pal around with, he tried to bury it.
That tracks with his promise to “bring back free speech to America.” Out of the gate, the White House barred the Associated Press from the Oval Office for refusing to say “Gulf of America.” It kept the ban in place after a federal judge called it unconstitutional retaliation. He has since tried to ban CNN, Politico, and MS NOW from the White House, while repeatedly suggesting negative coverage of him and his administration should be illegal.
At the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth demanded that reporters pledge not to publish even unclassified information without approval, and nearly the entire press corps, Fox News included, walked out rather than sign. In just one chapter of Trump’s war on media, hours after Trump’s hyper-partisan FCC chairman warned ABC that “we can do this the easy way or the hard way,” Jimmy Kimmel was briefly pulled off the air. Even Ted Cruz called it “dangerous as hell.” Trump sued The New York Times for $15 billion, and a Bush-appointed judge threw it out. He issued executive orders punishing law firms that had represented his opponents, and three federal judges struck them down as unconstitutional. The United States has now fallen to a record-low 64th in the World Press Freedom Index.
But perhaps the weirdest window into Trump’s twisted psyche comes in the form of the 80-year old’s unhinged late night social media revenge benders, where he posted 2,249 times in the first four months of this year. One night, he posted more than 160 times, including a post branding Sen. Mark Kelly, a Navy combat veteran and astronaut, a “traitor” who deserved death. His account also shared a video depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as apes. Amid a feud with Pope Leo, he posted AI images of himself as a Christ-like figure. Finally, after millions of Americans joined peaceful “No Kings” protests, he posted an AI video of himself in a crown, flying a jet labeled “King Trump” and dumping feces on the marchers.
If an aged family member behaved this way, you’d schedule an intervention. If a CEO did, the board would remove them. The presidency deserves to be held to at least the standard of conduct we expect in daily life, and patriots of every party should insist on it.
The Choice
This is nowhere near a complete list of Trump’s assaults on American democracy. This election has provided a constant stream of insults to the integrity of the office, from Trump’s call for red states to do a mid-decade redistricting so Republicans could hold onto Congress, to his endorsement of buffoonishly corrupt Texas AG Ken Paxton over conservative incumbent Jon Cornyn, to using $22 million taxpayer dollars for campaign ads, to his absurdly propagandistic videos at rallies about how “God Made Trump,” to ogling “asses” on the campaign trail to his latest gambit of offering a bribe of $5,000 for each vote — are all just signs of how deep the rot has gotten a decade into the Trump era. This year’s midterms are the only chance we have to restore some basic guardrails on this unhinged president and redeem our country’s once-respected leadership in the free world. The question for independent voters is whether you will now hold Trump to the same standard you’d apply to any other president, regardless of party. You don’t have to join a team. You just have to remember the damage Trump has done over the past two years back in office and vote. Don’t let the memory hole win.