Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 16, “Rolling Stone” is breaking down 11 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
The Recording Academy’s relationship with hip-hop has improved immensely over the past decade. Previously maligned for snubbing revered legacy artists and culturally acclaimed newcomers in favor of mainstream media darlings, voters have recently placed less emphasis on commercial success and crossover appeal in their selection process.
In response to debacles such as Macklemore and Ryan Lewis’ infamous Best Rap Album victory over Kendrick Lamar at the 56th Annual Grammy Awards, the Recording Academy addressed those criticisms, revamping its voting pool to reflect the inclusion and diversity requested by the public.
“I’ve witnessed the Recording Academy making meaningful strides in expanding and diversifying its voting membership,” Phylicia Fant, Global Director, Black Music and Culture, Amazon Music, tells Rolling Stone. “Hip-Hop is not simply a genre; it is a driving force in the evolution of music, fashion, art, and global culture.”
Now, consideration of an act’s cultural currency is more relevant than ever, resulting in more accurate representations of the best music hip-hop has to offer. This has given newfound hope to acts vying to add a Grammy to their list of accolades who likely wouldn’t have been considered in the past, making the field of potential nominees wider than ever.
“I think hip-hop is in an interesting place because there are so many artists paving their own lanes in the genre,” Tony M. Centeno, iHeartRadio’s National Hip-Hop Editor, tells Rolling Stone. “Titans like Cardi B and Drake constantly heat up the charts with their hits, while newer acts are constantly rejuvenating the genre in the streets and online.”
Yet, in many regards, the Grammys remain a game of the usual suspects, as a certain level of visibility and proximity to mainstream America is seemingly required to claim a nomination, let alone a victory. Thus, albums like Isaiah Rashad’s It’s Been Awful, and Wale’s Everything Is a Lot, while deserving of strong consideration, are dark horse candidates. However, Centeno holds out hope for those artists, as well as others, adding that he “wouldn’t be shocked to see Dave‘s name,” citing the U.K. standouts’ critically acclaimed album The Boy Who Played the Harp.
This leaves a shortlist of three former Grammy Award winners and two artists who have yet to add a gramophone to their hardware collection as our major contenders for Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards.
Best Rap Album — Our Predictions
Cardi B, Am I the Drama?
J. Cole, The Fall-Off
Nas & DJ Premier, Light-Years
Don Toliver, Octane
A$AP Rocky, Don’t Be Dumb
Who Will Win?
Cardi B, Am I the Drama?
Albums released the year before a Grammy voting period begins often get the short end of the stick, as the hype surrounding those projects has likely tempered in comparison to more recent efforts. However, as 2026 has been devoid of an album that dominated the charts or served as a culturally defining moment, Cardi B’s Am I the Drama will be crowned Best Rap Album despite being released over a year ago.
Debuting at Number One on the Billboard 200, Am I the Drama? ended the years-long wait for the follow-up to Cardi’s Invasion of Privacy album, which won Best Rap Album in 2019, and solidified her status as a force to be reckoned with.
From channeling Jay-Z while paying homage on “Imaginary Playerz,” to blockbuster collaborations with Summer Walker (“Dead”), Selena Gomez (“Pick It Up”), and Kehlani (“Safe”), Cardi pulled out all the stops for Am I the Drama?, which will make her the first solo female rap artist to win two Grammy Awards for Best Rap Album in hip-hop history.
Who Should Win?
J. Cole, The Fall-Off
With J. Cole, what you see and hear is what you get, no deceptive strings attached. That straightforward approach to his music and presentation has cost him in terms of the aura and mystique often treated as a prerequisite for a rap star, but is a reflection of the perspective and inner peace he’s gained and documented in his work.
Having come to terms with his disillusionment with such standards, the state of hip-hop, and the conversations surrounding it, J. Cole bid the game adieu with The Fall-Off, his supposed swan song marking his retirement from rap.
The Fall-Off, like many double-disc efforts before it, is not without blemish, but is masterful in its totality. A thematic return to his Fayetteville, North Carolina, stomping grounds, the album captures Cole at his most fiery and reflective, with tracks like “Safety,” “Poor Thang,” “Bunce Road Flows,” and “Only You” garnering rave reviews.
Previously nominated for Best Rap Album on three occasions, the fourth time should be the charm for J. Cole; as The Fall-Off has the strongest case, musically and narratively, of the lineup.
Forecasting the Field
Expansion of the field of nominees aside, the Recording Academy’s trend of playing favorites has remained a key indicator of who usually brings home the hardware in any given category. Best Rap Album is no different, as last year’s winner was Kendrick Lamar, a multi-time victor whose chart-topping GNX album outlasted the field.
According to Centeno, with Kendrick and Drake, who didn’t submit Iceman, Habibti, or Maid of Honour for Grammy consideration, not in the running, it increases other acts’ odds of winning the award. “I believe Don Toliver’s Octane will be a strong contender along with A$AP Rocky’s Don’t Be Dumb and Baby Keem‘s Ca$ino. Cardi B also has a shot with Am I the Drama?, since it dropped right after last year’s cut-off date.”
Of our proposed nominees, all but Don Toliver and A$AP Rocky have a Grammy nomination for Best Rap Album under their belt, let alone a nomination. With the overwhelming success of Toliver’s fifth studio album Octane, his first to top the Billboard 200, his star power has caught up to the respect for his artistry.
Packing a genre-blending sound likely to resonate with voters leaning toward the genre’s avant-garde fare, Toliver could join wife Kali Uchis as the latest Grammy Award-winning couple in music history with a win. A win for Rocky’s Don’t Be Dumb, his first studio album in nearly a decade, would do the same, as his partner, Rihanna, has won nine Grammys throughout her career.
Rap traditionalists Common and Pete Rock’s The Auditorium Vol. 1 was arguably the most surprising, yet satisfying Best Rap Album nominee this past year, continuing the Grammys’ uptick in love shown to veteran hip-hop acts. Nas, who won his first Grammy Award in 2021 for King’s Disease, and DJ Premier, a three-time Grammy winner via his production work for Christina Aguilera, Jay-Z, and D’Angelo, will likely fill that void with their long-awaited album Light-Years, as watershed collaborations between musical legends have long taken priority with voters.
It remains to be seen whether J. Cole will earn his first Best Rap Album award for his “retirement” album The Fall-Off, or if Cardi B’s Am I the Drama? will mirror the dominance Invasion of Privacy enjoyed several years ago. However, we’re confident whoever steps to the podium once this year’s winner is announced will be deserving.
